Evaluating Proposed Nuclear Cooperation with Saudi Arabia
From billion dollar deposits and hotels to the Enrichment of Uranium examined. Investigative Analysis/opinion
The following analysis represents the author's independent assessment of publicly available information regarding U.S.-Saudi nuclear negotiations and does not reflect a political position. Not written by AI
In what is stated by DJT as an attempt to pull gulf allies away from China , nuclear talks are underway for Saudi Arabia. Reports on the extent of the talks are conflicting at this stage and we will have to wait for full text of the deal to be produced. What is known for sure is the following:
The Saudi Kingdom and the U.S. signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement
It is a 123 agreement meaning it allows for the US to share its civilian nuclear tech with another country.
The Trump administration states that the deal will allow for American companies to participate in Saudi nuclear development (see my initial point about China)
Initial reports from outlets such as Reuters and Al Jazeera state that people who are familiar with the agreement claim that it allows for nuclear enrichment- sources are not named as far as I have found.
Named sources- Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Christ Wright, have publicly denied that the agreement will allow for enriched uranium
The agreement needs to go through congressional review and according to Donald Trump, is contingent upon the Saudis joining the Abraham Accords.
Background
As I sated, we will have to wait for the full text of the agreement to come out to validate the claims of enriched uranium pathways, but that is the crux of the issue. The standard of middle eastern nuclear dealings has long been the UAE. The UAE under a 2009 deal agreed to buy their reactor fuel from international buyers instead of enriching it on their own soil, as to not alarm their neighbors, to strengthen ties with the US, and to build up their civilian nuclear sector. This agreement is considered a success story in the eyes of most.
Saudi Arabia is a different story. Saudi Arabia has turned down years of nuclear proposals due to this exact issue. The regime has very publicly stated that they in so many words will build a nuke if Iran builds a nuke. Saudi Arabia and Iran are 2 sides of the same coin in my opinion, especially when considering the exorbant amounts of money spent on exporting their version of ideology (to a much more successful degree than Iran could ever dream of). In addition, the Kingdom has also disagreed to normalizing relations with Israel/let the Palestine issue go unless of course they are allowed to enrich uranium. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia also has a domestic supply of uranium. So, as you can see , anyone familiar with the issues are skeptical that any sort of deal that doesn’t involve enriching uranium, and does involve enriching relations with Israel is not likely. The timing of the war with Iran is also cause for concern- as they say “timing is everything.”
The Sovereignty Concern
It is no secret that the Trump family and Trump businesses have ties to Saudi Arabia. This is not speculation, conflict of interest concerns were investigated by congress who eventually decided that in the case of the 2billion dollars transferred to Jared Kushner’s Affinity by the Saudi Royals, no tie to a specific policy could be linked to the money. Kushner and the Saudis both insisted that despite Kushner’s involvement in the Middle East deals, and despite the fact that to date no investment proceeds have been paid back, it was a civilian business transaction and nothing more. To my knowledge this is the only official inquiry into the affairs. An abbreviated timeline of the relationship is as follows:
2017 Trump strengthens Saudi alliance
2018 Khashoggi crisis tests relationship; Kashoggi was a journalist who was murdered by the Saudis in the Turkish embassy to which the US looked the other way. Fun fact Adnan Khashoggi — Jamal's uncle — was one of the most notorious arms dealers of the 20th century and had documented connections to Jeffrey Epstein's circle. He was a central figure in the Iran-Contra scandal.
2020- Kushner leads Middle East diplomacy
2021- Saudi PIF commits $2B to Kushner’s Affinity Partners
2024- Trump Organization announces Saudi real estate expansion
2024–2026- Trump Tower Jeddah, Trump Plaza Jeddah, Riyadh projects
2026- U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation becomes major issue
To contextualize; Saudi Arabia is becoming one of the more significant foreign markets for the Trump Organization, but it is not the only major foreign business relationship Trump has had. The comparison is complicated because Trump’s overseas business model is mostly branding/licensing (someone else builds the project and pays for the Trump name) rather than Trump owning large foreign assets. The differentiator is the overt political relationships and historic deals being made in the Middle East and the direct deposit of $2billion which is above and beyond putting your name on a building in a foreign country. I despise speculation which is why I am writing this as a blog and not as a formal brief, but at what point does it become ok to speculate that there is at least a possibility that our sitting president is using the presidency to enrich himself and his family in direct opposition to the best interests of the nation and the world? I shudder to think of the implications of a foreign morally bankrupt regime paying for favors up to and including possible enrichment of uranium- which brings me to next point.
Understanding the Dynamics of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is a paradox. It is both an alleged partner of the U.S. while also being one of the most controversial governments on planet earth. It is an absolute Monarchy ruled by the House of Saud currently led by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (who ascended in 2015). The de facto ruler and heir apparent is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who serves as Prime Minister and has consolidated near-total control over the kingdom's affairs and who invested $2b with Kushner with no monetary returns to date. Since 2017, MBS has systematically eliminated rivals through the "anti-corruption" purge that detained hundreds of princes and businessmen at the Ritz-Carlton Riyadh. He now controls all major levers of power: defense, internal security, economic policy, and social reform.
The Philosophy: Wahhabism + Modernization
Wahhabism: Since the 18th century, the House of Saud has maintained a pact with Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, a religious reformer whose ultraconservative interpretation of Sunni Islam (often called Wahhabism or Salafism) became the kingdom’s official ideology. This partnership gave the Sauds religious legitimacy in exchange for the Wahhabi clerics’ monopoly over education, judiciary, and morality policing.
Key Wahhabi tenets historically enforced:
Strict gender segregation
Ban on churches and non-Muslim religious practice
Harsh punishments (public beheadings, floggings)
Religious police (mutaween) enforcing prayer attendance and dress codes
Rejection of Shia Islam and Sufism as heretical
The MBS Transformation
Since 2017, MBS has pursued Vision 2030 — a radical economic and social restructuring aimed at reducing oil dependence and modernizing the kingdom:
Social reforms:
Women can now drive, travel without male guardians, and mix socially with men
Cinemas reopened, concerts permitted
Religious police stripped of arrest powers
Restrictions on “un-Islamic” dress relaxed
Political reality: While social liberalization has accelerated, political repression has intensified. The same crown prince who allowed movie theaters also ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, detained women’s rights activists, and maintains zero tolerance for political dissent. The ops are beheaded. In addition to domestic turmoil, mortal enemies also include Iran and Israel which is also the enemy of Iran, Syria, Turkey, Shia muslims, Qatar, the Houthis, hezbolla, ISIS, The muslim brotherhood, al-quada (interesting story there about their fall out with bin Laden when they gave his desired security contract to the Americans in the first gulf war).
Major Saudi Arabia human rights abuses and alleged international crimes (condensed)
Yemen War (2015–present) - Saudi-led coalition accused of war crimes, including airstrikes on civilians, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure; contributed to a major humanitarian crisis.
Political repression — Arrests and imprisonment of dissidents, journalists, activists, and critics; restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly.
Torture and abuse of detainees — Allegations of torture, sexual abuse, and coercive interrogations of activists and political prisoners.
Executions and death penalty abuses — High execution rates; criticism over trials, due process concerns, and use of capital punishment.
Religious persecution/discrimination — Restrictions and discrimination affecting Shia Muslims and religious minorities.
Migrant worker abuses — Allegations of forced labor, wage theft, exploitation, and poor working conditions under the labor system.
Women’s rights violations (historically) — Longstanding restrictions under guardianship laws and limits on women’s autonomy (some reforms have since occurred).
Transnational repression — Alleged surveillance, intimidation, and targeting of Saudi critics abroad.
Most internationally significant controversies:
Khashoggi assassination
Yemen war conduct
Crackdowns on dissent
Labor and human rights abuses
Victims of 9/11 suing over the 28 unclassified pages (author notes 9/11 commission declared no direct involvement by the Saudi government)
Economic philosophy: Moving from a welfare/patronage state to a diversified economy while maintaining authoritarian control. MBS is also big on sport washing but I doubt that will find its way into official philosophy.
So why do we do business with them? Saudi Arabia sits atop 20% of the world's proven oil reserves. This is the source of their power and their immunity. Despite assassinating journalists, crucifying/beheading people, and spreading iffy ideology globally, they remain a US strategic ally. Why? The petrodollar system, arms sales, and the need for regional counterweight to Iran. The US has protected Saudi Arabia militarily since 1945 — even after 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens.
Implications
First and foremost just a reminder that the pathway to enriched uranium is at this point unverified.
Short Term Implications:
We lose the moral high ground with Iran, taking all avenues of a diplomatic resolution off the table. We cannot tell Iran not to enrich uranium and their mortal enemy yes without losing diplomatic solutions. Inevitable
A scenario where the U.S gives its blessing to even the pathway to a nuclear Saudi Arabia would disrupt the Middle East’s fragile balance and potentially trigger the start of the world’s most dangerous arms race. Moderate likelihood
Path to weaponization with civilian infrastructure as a front via U.S blessings- a concern as they’ve refused to sign the Additional Protocol (allowing stricter IAEA inspections) and are accused of building a domestic uranium enrichment program with Chinese help, ostensibly for civilian energy but with clear weapons potential, giving them leverage over Trump in negotiations. Moderate Likelihood
Increase Saudi- Iran Nuclear competition Moderate Likelihood (we don’t know the actual status of Iranian infrastructure right now)
US congressional and diplomatic conflict over the agreement being finalized- high likelihood
Increased Chinese and Russian Influence and competition- ongoing, already happening.
Oil Market volatility- leverage over all OPEC negotiations, petrodollar threatened, pivot to yuan or Chinese digital system as China is their biggest current customer- high likelihood of volatility -extinction of petrodollar conditional on weapons production
Houthis become activated again as they have been relatively quiet- other proxies aligned with Iran are emboldened- High likelihood
Saudi Arabia rushes enrichment and path to weaponization while Trump is still in office- unknown factor; if they are in fact paying for political favors it is high.
Long-Term Implications (5+ Years)
A Middle Eastern nuclear arms race becomes more encompassing and involves Turkey and Egypt. Regional security changes forever High concern- Moderate likelihood- moderate because US administration will change and we don’t know the next administration's foreign policy in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia actually develops a weapon with help from China or Pakistan (rumor of a secret deal with Pakistan) High Concern - Largely depends on what Iran is doing. If Iran starts the program back up, high likelihood that Saudi Arabia will develop; impossible to factor in U.S. regime change.
The extinction of the petrodollar- Saudi Arabia just joined BRICS (2024). A nuclear Saudi Arabia aligned with Russia and China could accelerate a multipolar commodity pricing system, shattering the dollar's monopoly. If Saudi Arabia announces:
We have nuclear weapons (immunity from invasion)
We will now accept yuan, gold, or euros for oil
The dollar demand collapses. Trillions in dollar holdings get dumped. US interest rates spike. American debt becomes unsustainable. The US loses the privilege of printing the world’s reserve currency.
Final Thoughts
A world where Saudi Arabia is allowed to enrich their own uranium is a world where a regional arms race is triggered and the end of the petrodollar is accelerated with no infrastructure (digital or otherwise) to replace it. To make matters worse, China has made recent announcements that they can provide a financial infrastructure to bypass western banking to include the Swift system. That would hurl us into a darkness in which brutal regimes and criminals run the show with little to no recourse for justice or financial transparency.
This administration props up competition with china as the excuse to make a deal with MBS, but the truth is Saudi Arabia needs the U.S. more than it needs China which I hope is being considered in negotiations.
Chinese reactors are inferior
Chinese long term reliability and their enslavement through debt tactics can’t be trusted
China is not capable of and will not help MBS with their many internal problems that can quickly spiral
Saudi Wealth is still tied into wall street
Saudi Arabia doesn’t actual need nuclear energy due to their massive oil reserves.
I personally do not see a scenario in which Saudi Arabia agrees to the Abraham Accords without demanding enrichment capabilities. I also suspect that if they are determined to gain enrichment capability, they will via the Chinese, Pakistani, or indigenous pathways without signing onto normalizing political relations with Israel. The question is whether the US blesses it and loses moral authority and future leverage, or opposes it and maintains the principle. If the rumors of tolerance for enrichment are factually accurate, congress must kill this deal. We cannot green light a situation in which there is a nuclear armed MBS with impunity, possible Pakistan or Chinese support lurking in the shadows, and an American President who may be for sale while in the middle of a war with Iran due to apparent enrichment activity.
The reality is The Saudis are bluffing, and if Trump folds, it appears that it will be for personal reasons. He needs the deal more than they do and that should be questioned by every American regardless of which political camp you are in. The UAE accepted constraints and got their reactors. Saudi Arabia can too—or they can explain to their population that movie theaters and NEOM funding disappeared because MBS demanded the bomb.
Amanda is the founder of Immaculate International, a boutique private intelligence firm. She is a combat veteran of OIF (08-09), a licensed private investigator, and holds the Certified Fraud Examiner Credential. Engagements can be initiated at immaculate-international.com