How Iran Uses America's Divisions Against It
The psychological feedback loop turning military pressure into political leverage- Analysis/Opinion
The following analysis represents the author's independent assessment of publicly available information and does not reflect a political position. Not written by AI. Not a formal intelligence brief. No paywall.
While the kinetic war is ongoing in the Persian Gulf, a more insidious battle is raging at home which has nothing to do with missiles, aircraft, naval power, the strait of Hormuz, and everything to do with psychology.
Iran is an expert in asymmetric warfare. It cannot compete with the US dollar for dollar or ship for ship and its strength is not in its conventional military methods. Asymmetric warfare has never required the weaker side to match the stronger side as demonstrated throughout history, most notably by this same group in Iraq during Operation Iraq Freedom in which the Iranian EFP became notable. This type of warfare requires the weaker opponent to intricately map the greater opponent’s strengths to exploit vulnerabilities and turn their strengths against them. One of America’s greatest points of exploitation is right here at home- political division caused by election propaganda and techniques that I would describe as psychological operations bordering on hypnosis that have caused a portion of the population to exhibit all of the symptoms of being inducted into a cult in which mob mentality rules the day and logic goes out the window (both sides of the aisle). The very thing that politicians use to get elected, is now being used against them by Iran and it’s not good.
Iran does not need to convince Americans to love Iran or hate Iran. It also does not need to convince the masses that their propaganda is even true at all. It simply needs to cause Americans to doubt each other, distrust their institutions, question what they are seeing, and fight over what the United States should have done and what they should do. So a feedback loop has developed. A missile or a water IED or a drone attack does not need to be particularly effective to force Washington to respond. And when Washington is forced to respond, the economic cost of everything goes up which then triggers a political backlash that leaves us arguing with each other.
Strategic Social Engineering through Information Warfare
Social engineering is typically associated with the manipulation of individuals into taking an action they otherwise might not take (usually for the benefit of the engineer). But at the level of nations, the concept becomes much broader: identify vulnerabilities, exploit existing behavior, and shape the environment in which people make decisions.
Political polarization is high, trust in institutions is low and Americans are increasingly being fed their desired version of events thanks to algorithms which creates what I can only describe as plato’s cave with either red of blue shadows on the walls that are being fueled by half truths, cherry picked information, and emotions. On a personal note, over the last week I have had to block at least 2 hysterical and emotional individuals who personally insulted me over my war analysis. One even took it as far as to say that I am a supporter of Islamic Extremism if I don’t vote for Trump and another who attempted to use my motherhood against me by claiming I do not care about my children because I said the war with Iran was poorly planned. This becomes deeply comical as well as insulting when considering the fact that I spent a year deep in Shia territory trying not to die at the hands of this exact group while having a first hand look at the death and destruction they cause. My point is not to complain or stoke the fires of division, but to shed light on the absurdity of being attacked when you venture to try to show people a way out of the cave. The important thing to point out about those who have been the victims of psychological operations is that they never seem to spread knowledge or analysis- it is always opinion swimming in emotion which speaks to the fact that their very identity is deeply wrapped up in whichever cave shadows they subscribe to.
and Iran knows this- as does Russia and China.
A military strike provides the perfect raw material and Iran knows this. One video appears showing an Iranian missile being intercepted. To one audience, it demonstrates American military superiority. Another video shows damage from the attack, producing an entirely different reaction. A claim about casualties spreads before it can be verified. A manipulated image appears alongside authentic footage. Political commentators begin arguing about what happened. Within hours, the original military event has become several competing realities.
At that point, the adversary doesn’t necessarily need to control the narrative.
The division itself becomes the objective.
This is the important difference between traditional propaganda and modern information warfare. Traditional propaganda tries to persuade you: “Believe this.”
Social engineering can be more sophisticated because it says: “react this way”
Be angry.
Be afraid.
Distrust the government.
Distrust the media.
Distrust the other political party.
Demand escalation.
Demand withdrawal.
Assume the other side is lying.
And, most importantly, keep arguing.
Documented Tactics
Iranian fake news sites targeting opposite sides of the political spectrum
In August 2024, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center documented Iranian-linked influence operations creating covert news sites designed to appeal to different ideological audiences.
One site, Nio Thinker, was aimed at left-leaning Americans and attacked Trump. Another, Savannah Time, presented itself as conservative local news and focused on issues such as LGBTQ+ politics and gender.
Microsoft assessed that some of the content was generated or assembled using AI-enabled services and plagiarized from legitimate American publications. It also said the operation appeared designed to stir controversy and influence voters, particularly around divisive political issues.
The 2024 election hack-and- leak operation
U.S. intelligence agencies said Iranian actors targeted the 2024 presidential election and sought to “stoke discord” and undermine confidence in American democratic institutions. Iranian cyber actors stole material from the Trump campaign and then sent excerpts of that stolen material to people associated with the Biden campaign. The FBI, ODNI and CISA publicly described the operation as part of Iran’s effort to influence the election.
Isreal-Hamas
U.S . officials previously warned that Iranian actors were using covert social-media activity to exploit contentious American political issues, including the Israel-Hamas conflict.
A 2021 investigation reported by TIME, based on U.S. intelligence assessments, described Iranian influence operations pushing divisive and inflammatory content around major American controversies—including the Israel-Hamas conflict, racial tensions and other politically charged issues.
Current Conflict
The Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted a study and found that their research presented a likely pro-Iranian campaign on Bluesky by users organized around narratives of Iranian military resilience, anti-Israel framing, and division across Western publics. They assess the this reflects a strategic calculation that losses on the battlefield can be offset in the information space and shape public opinion against policy implementation. The significance extends beyond this war. By amplifying tensions that already exist, Iran is attempting not only to weaken support for the current conflict, but also to erode the political resolve and alliance cohesion the United States and its allies will need long after the fighting stops.
The most important question isn’t which country can destroy more military hardware. It’s which country can force the other to continually react.
Money. Time. Military resources. Political capital. Public trust.
That is the essence of asymmetric warfare.
And if the battlefield increasingly includes not only ships and missiles but also markets, social media and public opinion, then the question of who is winning becomes considerably harder to answer.
Amanda is the founder of Immaculate International, a boutique private intelligence firm. She is a combat veteran of OIF (08-09), a licensed private investigator, and holds the Certified Fraud Examiner Credential. Engagements can be initiated at immaculate-international.com